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Generation Bio Co. (GBIO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $4.19M, beating S&P Global consensus of $2.92M by $1.27M; Primary EPS (S&P definition) was -$2.662 vs -$3.016 consensus, a beat, while company-reported GAAP EPS was -$0.32, reflecting definitional differences between Primary EPS and GAAP diluted EPS . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Sequentially, revenue fell from $7.55M in Q3 to $4.19M in Q4, while GAAP net loss widened to -$21.38M (from -$15.31M in Q3), driven by a larger lease termination charge ($3.60M vs $1.17M in Q3) .
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $185.2M at year-end, with runway expected to fund operations into 2H 2027; management reiterated timing to announce lead ctLNP–siRNA target mid-2025 and submit first IND in 2H 2026 .
  • Strategic pivot to ctLNP–siRNA for T cell-driven autoimmune diseases; management emphasized selective T-cell delivery and potential to reach undruggable targets, which frames the medium-term narrative and catalysts around target disclosure (mid-2025) and IND (2H 2026) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Collaboration revenue exceeded consensus, with Q4 actual at $4.19M vs $2.92M expected, supporting near-term cash inflows while the pipeline advances.*
  • Management highlighted breakthrough preclinical delivery: “Our T cell-selective LNP…can reach high-value targets that cause T cell-driven autoimmune diseases but are undruggable or poorly drugged…” .
  • Cash runway intact into 2H 2027 despite lease-related charges, preserving strategic flexibility to reach IND timing milestones .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential revenue softness (Q3: $7.55M → Q4: $4.19M) alongside higher lease termination costs led to wider net loss in Q4 (-$21.38M vs -$15.31M in Q3), raising near-term burn focus .
  • Non-cash lease termination charges totaled $63.20M for FY and $3.60M in Q4, an overhang from exiting the Waltham manufacturing facility .
  • No published Q4 earnings call transcript, limiting visibility into detailed operational Q&A and near-term revenue cadence (MarketBeat notes a call date but indicates “check back for transcripts”) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.091 $7.554 $4.188
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$16.388 $15.088 $15.494
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$9.515 $9.181 $8.656
Loss on Lease Termination ($USD Millions)$1.497 $1.169 $3.601
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$27.400 $25.438 $27.751
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(20.432) $(15.313) $(21.382)
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(0.31) $(0.23) $(0.32)
Weighted Avg Shares (Millions)66.531 66.738 66.791
EBIT ($USD Millions)$(21.712)*$(16.715)*$(20.342)*
EBIT Margin (%)N/A*-221.27%*N/A*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs (Balance Sheet)

KPI ($USD Millions unless noted)Q2 2024 (Jun 30)Q3 2024 (Sep 30)Q4 2024 (Dec 31)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities$216.942 $199.812 $185.223
Working Capital$193.178 $161.089 $157.848
Total Assets$265.264 $248.784 $231.197
Stockholders’ Equity$115.407 $104.442 $86.204

Q4 2024 Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricActualConsensus# of EstimatesSurprise
Primary EPS (S&P definition)-2.662*-3.0156*7*Beat by $0.3536*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.188*$2.917*6*Beat by $1.271*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayCorporate“fund operations into 2H 2027” (reiterated in Q2, Q3) “fund operations into 2H 2027” Maintained
Lead ctLNP–siRNA Target DisclosureProgramNot previously specifiedMid-2025 Introduced
First IND (ctLNP–siRNA)ProgramNot previously specified (preclinical)2H 2026 Introduced
Financial Line Items (Revenue, Margins, OpEx, OI&E, Tax)Q1/Q2’25Not providedNot providedN/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
T cell ctLNP delivery / platform validationQ2: ctLNP platform overview and iqDNA cargo focus ; Q3: NHP data showing selective in vivo T cell delivery, balance CD4/CD8, minimal off-target Emphasis on ctLNP delivering siRNA to T cells; ~98% B2M knockdown in human T cells in vitro and mouse; selective modulation of T cell activity Strengthening validation and shift to siRNA modality
Strategic pivot to siRNA in autoimmunityQ2: Broader genetic medicine platforms ; Q3: continued platform validation Formal pivot to ctLNP–siRNA; program disclosure and IND timing Clearer strategic focus, clinical path definition
Cash runway / capitalizationQ2/Q3: runway into 2H 2027 Runway reaffirmed; year-end cash $185.2M Stable but trending down cash balances
Lease termination / cost structureQ2: initial lease termination charge $1.497M ; Q3: $1.169M Q4: $3.601M; FY lease termination $63.197M One-time non-cash overhang peaking in FY
Collaboration revenue cadenceQ2: $4.091M ; Q3: $7.554M Q4: $4.188M Volatile quarterly cadence

Management Commentary

  • “Our T cell-selective lipid nanoparticle (LNP)…can reach high-value targets that cause T cell-driven autoimmune diseases but are undruggable or poorly drugged by conventional modalities.” — Geoff McDonough, M.D., CEO .
  • “Our ctLNP platform has recently demonstrated highly selective in vivo delivery of mRNA to T cells in non-human primates (NHPs), a key milestone…” — Geoff McDonough, CEO .
  • “We continue to apply our proprietary cell-targeted LNP delivery system…to develop in vivo genetic medicines…” — Geoff McDonough, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • No public Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available in our document catalog; MarketBeat lists a call date but indicates transcripts are not available (“check back for transcripts…”) .
  • Guidance clarifications (timelines) are in press releases: target disclosure mid-2025; IND 2H 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4: Primary EPS -3.0156 and revenue $2.917M; actual Primary EPS -2.662 and revenue $4.188M, both beats.*
  • Note: Company-reported Q4 GAAP EPS is -$0.32; S&P’s “Primary EPS” may differ in methodology (normalization and treatment of discontinued/continuing operations). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Collaboration revenue beat and S&P Primary EPS beat underpin the quarter’s headline positives despite sequential revenue decline; focus remains on execution of the siRNA pivot.*
  • Lease termination charges (non-cash) drove elevated operating expenses; with the facility exit addressed, investors should monitor underlying OpEx trajectory excluding one-time items .
  • Cash runway into 2H 2027 provides adequate time to reach target disclosure (mid-2025) and first IND (2H 2026), key milestones likely to shape sentiment and valuation .
  • Platform risk remains central; NHP and mouse/human T-cell preclinical data are encouraging for selective T-cell delivery and potent knockdown, but clinical translation is next gating item .
  • Near-term trading could be catalyst-driven around program reveal (target/indication) and any additional collaboration revenue prints; quarterly revenue cadence may be volatile .
  • Estimate models may need to adjust for revenue beats and for any normalization between GAAP EPS and S&P Primary EPS metrics; clarity on lease-related items should refine OpEx forecasts.*
  • Medium-term thesis hinges on ctLNP–siRNA differentiation in T cell-driven autoimmunity; competitive landscape favors truly selective T-cell approaches with predictable pharmacology .